In 2024, the Tennessee Titans tied for the worst record in the NFL, a dismal 3-14. Because they had an easier schedule than the other 3-14 teams, they received the first overall pick in the 2025 draft, giving them the opportunity to select a player who could lift them from the bottom of the NFL. In a different league, the Titans may not have gotten that chance.
Out of MLB, the NBA, the NHL and the NFL, the NFL is the only league that doesn’t use a lottery system to determine the order of the first few picks in the draft. The other leagues should follow the NFL’s example and stop using lottery systems.
MLB, the NBA and the NHL lottery systems are all slightly different, but in all three, each team that isn’t in the playoffs enters a lottery. There are then six selections for MLB, four selections for the NBA and two selections for the NHL, with the first selection being for the first overall pick, the second selection being for the second and so on. Teams’ chances of being selected are in reverse order of their record in the previous season.
Under this system, it is possible that the worst teams do not receive the first picks. In contrast, the NFL orders draft picks of nonplayoff teams solely in reverse order of record. The NFL’s system results in parity, which is when there are not significant gaps in skill levels between teams. An excellent example of this was when the Washington Commanders drafted quarterback Jayden Daniels with the second pick of the 2024 draft. In Daniels’ rookie year, he led the Commanders to the NFC championship game, catapulting the team from one of the NFL’s worst to one of its best. Parity is essential for a sport to be entertaining because it is difficult to become invested if most games have obvious outcomes.
The reason leagues sacrifice parity by using lottery drafts is to prevent teams not in playoff contention from purposefully losing games to guarantee a higher draft position, also known as tanking. However, because teams with worse records have better chances of being selected in the lottery, there is still an incentive to tank, which a 2019 simulation by the Harvard Sports Analysis Collective confirmed.
To combat this, MLB and the NBA give the three teams with the worst records an equal chance of being selected. However, this only discourages tanking for those three teams. The only way for a lottery system to eliminate tanking is by giving every team the same chance of being selected, which would destroy parity.
Still, lottery systems do offer less of an incentive to tank, and some believe that they are the only way to help the tanking problem. However, punishments like taking away draft picks would be effective.
Hopefully, MLB, the NBA and the NHL will soon realize the inferiority of lottery systems. In the meantime, sit back, relax and enjoy the NFL. Who knows? Maybe the Titans will win the next Super Bowl.
Eshan Singh can be reached at [email protected].
